The Cascade Collapse Framework

The Cascade Collapse Framework (CCF) is a model that predicts when and how nations or organizations fail by analyzing the interaction between leadership weaknesses and structural network vulnerabilities. Building on previous theories, it uses network analysis and graph theory to map out how collapse spreads through 'cascade' patterns—often triggered by leadership failures that erode trust in key positions. The framework can forecast collapse within 6–18 months, identify intervention points to stop failure, and shows that even stable-looking systems can be close to collapse if a leadership failure occurs. The model is validated by analyzing dozens of historical and current cases.